Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c14…0869 politics 411 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$169,198 (+35%) realized +$151,868 · open +$17,330
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%226W / 73L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,184per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$97,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$33,789
world 23% +$17,784
other 8% +$11,432
economics 1% −$1,173
finance 0% +$893
crypto 0% −$70
sports 0% −$62
culture 0% −$67
tech 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.0% -17.7% 71% 43% +6.6%
≤30d 165 +1.6% -8.0% 79% 24% +9.6%
≤90d 299 +4.8% -5.2% 76% 32% +6.3%
all 299 +4.8% -5.2% 76% 32% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 32% +6.3%
10% -14.3% 26% -3.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 20% -13.2%
20% -30.2% 15% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$299 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$97,909
Realized+$151,868
Unrealized+$17,330
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses226 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions158
Markets (closed)299 / 411
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$1,184
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 158 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 38¢ $6,112 $15,989 +$9,877 (+162%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $9,930 $9,915 −$15 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,972 $6,797 +$2,826 (+71%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1,347 $4,423 +$3,076 (+228%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3,888 $4,340 +$452 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 36¢ 40¢ $3,071 $3,446 +$376 (+12%)
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,210 $3,224 +$15 (+0%)
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $3,395 $3,156 −$240 (-7%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2,144 $3,016 +$872 (+41%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $2,672 $2,939 +$267 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-12 House seat? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $2,541 $2,611 +$70 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $3,741 $2,489 −$1,253 (-33%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $2,130 $2,193 +$64 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 11¢ 86¢ $253 $2,009 +$1,757 (+695%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $1,924 $1,670 −$254 (-13%)
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $1,564 $1,611 +$48 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 56¢ $981 $1,451 +$470 (+48%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,281 $1,366 +$85 (+7%)
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $1,162 $1,230 +$68 (+6%)
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1,013 $1,047 +$34 (+3%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 66¢ 79¢ $863 $1,026 +$162 (+19%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $875 $968 +$93 (+11%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $651 $908 +$257 (+39%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $784 $895 +$111 (+14%)
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 93¢ 97¢ $752 $783 +$31 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sam Liccardo advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,299 +$1,209 +93%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $7,522 +$1,484 +20%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $10,589 +$1,802 +17%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $5,490 +$64 +1%
Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $629 +$4 +1%
Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electi Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $164 +$1 +1%
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $215 +$1 +1%
Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $1,061 +$4 +0%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $1,091 +$7 +1%
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electio Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elaine Culotti advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $181 +$1 +1%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 10 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $179 +$79 +44%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 09 $755 +$817 +108%
Will Gina Viola finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Monica Rodriguez finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los A Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 09 $142 −$106 -75%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Asaad Alnajjar finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austin Beutner finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los A Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $145 28m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 12¢ $3 42m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 33¢ $166 45m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $160 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 32¢ $319 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 36¢ $37 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 51¢ $660 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,725 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 3h
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $400 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,974 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $125 3d
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $735 3d
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,375 3d
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $891 3d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 92¢ $161 5d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,822 5d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $90 5d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $283 6d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $428 6d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $84 6d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $707 6d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? BUY Yes 93¢ $41 6d
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 36¢ $482 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,909.41 · official $97,955.54 (match) · 3500 history records