trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighter Airdrop on December 24? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 28? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 27? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2,999 | $0 | −$2,999 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 26? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 23? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 25? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 22? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $20,480 | +$8,548 | +42% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $14,192 | +$412 | +3% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $8,163 | −$2,999 | -37% |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | Dec 30 | $750 | −$469 | -62% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 31? | Dec 30 | $100 | −$22 | -22% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? | Dec 30 | $100 | +$845 | +845% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 27 | $200 | −$25 | -12% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 27 | $32,343 | +$2,880 | +9% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 22? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 23? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 24? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 25? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 26? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 27? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 28? | Dec 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Nov 02 | $9,997 | +$3,700 | +37% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +22.3% | +10.7% | 100% | 50% | +13.9% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -18.5% | -26.2% | 67% | 33% | +4.8% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -18.5% | -26.2% | 67% | 33% | +4.8% |
| all | 16 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 31% | 19% | +3.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -7.4% | 19% | +3.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -16.2% | 19% | -6.0% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 19% | -15.1% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 6% | -23.4% |