Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c15…3833 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+19%) realized +$6 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% +23.3%
≤30d 2 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% +23.3%
≤90d 2 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% +23.3%
all 2 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 50% +23.3%
10% -42.4% 50% +11.5%
15% -47.9% 50% +0.7%
20% -53.1% 0% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$2 · ×12.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.25 per $1 lost it wins $12.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage7d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Amstelveen: Merel Hoedt vs Dune Vaissaud Dune Vaissaud 47¢ 62¢ $55 $72 +$17 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic Jun 28 $61 +$25 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Amstelveen: Merel Hoedt vs Dune Vaissaud BUY Dune Vaissaud 47¢ $28 1h
ITF Amstelveen: Merel Hoedt vs Dune Vaissaud BUY Dune Vaissaud 47¢ $28 1h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic BUY Eva Vedder 71¢ $30 15h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic BUY Eva Vedder 71¢ $30 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 73¢ $1 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 73¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.21 · official $156.21 (match) · 6 history records