Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c15…c2bf crypto 542 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,417 (-18%) realized −$1,416 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%132W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$308
14 days−$352
30 days−$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$298
weather 9% −$358
sports 9% −$126
other 8% −$279
world 6% −$145
economics 3% −$213
politics 1% −$64
finance 0% −$23
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -41.1% -46.7% 16% 16% -58.1%
≤30d 168 -34.2% -40.4% 17% 17% -46.6%
≤90d 482 -33.9% -40.2% 27% 24% -27.7%
all 482 -33.9% -40.2% 27% 24% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 24% -27.7%
10% -45.9% 21% -34.6%
15% -51.2% 19% -40.9%
20% -55.9% 15% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,416
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses132 / 350
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)482 / 542
History coverage81d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Francesco Passaro 68¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $5 −$4 -76%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon Jun 24 $30 +$8 +25%
ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $9 +$12 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 23 $7 −$1 -13%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -26%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $24 −$5 -22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Norway vs Jun 23 $5 +$21 +402%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 23 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 22 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 22 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Curaçao finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 21 $1 −$1 -61%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 Jun 21 $1 $0 -33%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sp Jun 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $5 +$3 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 15¢ $1 29m
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Francesco Passaro 68¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 60¢ $5 1h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon SELL Eva Marie Desvignes 100¢ $38 1h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 89¢ $4 2h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 88¢ $10 2h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 89¢ $5 2h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 90¢ $1 2h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 66¢ $10 3h
ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu BUY Xi Luo 75¢ $5 5h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 11¢ $5 15h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 10¢ $8 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 7¢ $3 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 16h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 18h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Spr BUY 23¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 7¢ $5 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 7¢ $1 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in BUY 13¢ $1 21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 5¢ $1 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 1¢ $1 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a BUY 4¢ $1 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 6¢ $1 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 19¢ $5 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 7¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 16¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 2060 history records