Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c1b…de56 sports 483 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,235 (-7%) realized −$10,927 · open −$308
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%192W / 287L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$2,454est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,029
7 days−$877
14 days−$2,741
30 days−$4,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$15,251
crypto 2% −$369
other 1% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -26.6% -33.6% 36% 36% -26.2%
≤30d 103 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 38% -31.4%
≤90d 479 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 40% -18.7%
all 479 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 40% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -18.7%
10% -24.5% 40% -26.4%
15% -31.8% 38% -33.6%
20% -38.5% 37% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$287 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$10,927
Unrealized−$308
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses192 / 287
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,454
Open positions4
Markets (closed)479 / 483
History coverage89d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Zhizhen Zhang 45¢ 40¢ $99 $88 −$11 (-11%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$166 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 15¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $235 −$233 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $112 +$122 +109%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $270 −$266 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $141 +$129 +92%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $127 −$124 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $130 −$128 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1,738 −$1,722 -99%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $935 +$803 +86%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $499 +$438 +88%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $214 −$210 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $283 +$430 +152%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $141 +$139 +99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $113 −$111 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $197 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $162 −$159 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $275 +$85 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $141 +$134 +95%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $115 −$113 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $596 −$586 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $109 −$106 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $410 +$296 +72%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $256 +$154 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $126 +$130 +103%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $199 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $72 +$103 +143%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $145 −$143 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $99 −$33 -33%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $104 −$101 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $282 −$278 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $406 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $282 +$125 +44%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $409 −$405 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $281 +$128 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $42 −$41 -98%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $56 −$55 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $60 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $201 −$200 -99%
Jodar vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $133 +$128 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $70 +$63 +89%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $99 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 46¢ $80 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Zhizhen Zhang 43¢ $20 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 14¢ $50 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 15¢ $35 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $170 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $235 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $112 12h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $270 23h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $270 23h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $141 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $87 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $40 28h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $130 29h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 68¢ $1,738 45h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $1,738 45h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $935 46h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 99¢ $936 46h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52¢ $499 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $214 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $713 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $283 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $60 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 10¢ $10 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $77 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $203 7d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $280 7d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $141 7d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $113 7d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $197 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.63 · official $88.63 (match) · 958 history records