Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c1d…7f00 sports 952 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$904 (-0%) realized −$987 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%874W / 74L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$928
14 days−$510
30 days−$1,786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$68
sports 41% −$2,269
culture 1% +$1,191
world 1% +$31
politics 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.5% -16.3% 89% 11% -17.0%
≤30d 68 -6.6% -15.5% 88% 13% -13.5%
≤90d 342 -1.2% -10.7% 94% 8% -11.1%
all 948 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$201 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$3,372
Realized−$987
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses874 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions4
Markets (closed)948 / 952
History coverage198d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 948 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $1,410 $1,564 +$154 (+11%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? No 86¢ 86¢ $792 $792 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 88¢ $817 $784 −$33 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $270 $232 −$38 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,331 +$82 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $212 −$211 -100%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $288 +$12 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,301 +$26 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,165 +$131 +11%
Gio Reyna: 4+ shots Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $500 +$7 +1%
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots Jun 19 $9 +$1 +17%
Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $207 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1,000 +$15 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,127 −$1,125 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,263 +$112 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $904 −$900 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,501 +$21 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $803 +$127 +16%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 11 $978 +$22 +2%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 10 $980 +$20 +2%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Devin Vassell: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $26 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1,000 +$16 +2%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 09 $1,001 +$19 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1,001 +$41 +4%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 08 $52 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll? Jun 08 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 08 $156 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 08 $156 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? Jun 08 $164 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 08 $184 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $917 +$878 +96%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 08 $277 +$30 +11%
Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 08 $378 +$1 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $502 +$93 +18%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $880 +$9 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $109 −$88 -80%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $3,001 +$29 +1%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,414 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $212 18h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $213 19h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 94¢ $1,331 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $1,301 22h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $9 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 39h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $78 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,088 41h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 45h
Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots BUY No 85¢ $9 45h
Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots BUY No 94¢ $19 45h
Gio Reyna: 4+ shots BUY No 99¢ $15 45h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $207 45h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $98 45h
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $84 45h
Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $98 45h
Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $48 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 86¢ $10 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 86¢ $5 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 87¢ $45 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,127 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $278 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $346 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 5d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $472 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $901 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 86¢ $904 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,501 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,371.87 · official $3,371.87 (match) · 2577 history records