Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c1d…0fa9 weather 142 markets active 8h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate87%122W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$3
sports 10% −$3
crypto 3% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 75% 12% -24.2%
≤30d 26 -7.1% -15.9% 85% 12% -14.9%
≤90d 112 -3.7% -12.9% 88% 15% -12.8%
all 141 -2.8% -12.1% 87% 16% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 16% -12.3%
10% -20.5% 1% -20.7%
15% -28.2% 1% -28.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses122 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 94¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 5? May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 8? May 08 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 7? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 6? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 3? May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 4? May 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 3? May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 2? May 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 1? May 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 8? Apr 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 8? Apr 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 94¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? BUY No 93¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? BUY No 91¢ $1 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 463 history records