Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c1f…5d75 sports 698 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,716 (-3%) realized −$12,716 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%686W / 12L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$653per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$11,128
other 37% −$1,688
world 0% +$12
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -5.1% -14.1% 95% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 97 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 698 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 2% -12.1%
all 698 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 2% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 2% -12.1%
10% -18.2% 1% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 1% -28.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$844) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1,417 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses686 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)698 / 698
History coverage76d
Avg bet$653
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 698 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 $0 +0%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $201 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $200 +$1 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $506 +$1 +0%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald Jun 25 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Spread: Barcelona (-0.5) Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $199 +$2 +1%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $423 $0 +0%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $8 $0 +4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 18 $4 +$4 +97%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $9 $0 +1%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $657 +$1 +0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 17 $214 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 168.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-8.5) Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 1h
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $181 16h
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 16h
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 100¢ $9 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $9 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 100¢ $506 2d
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald BUY Cezar Cretu 100¢ $1,006 2d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) BUY New York Liberty 100¢ $9 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 100¢ $7 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 5d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 100¢ $464 5d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 100¢ $542 5d
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov BUY Matteo Martineau 100¢ $157 5d
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov BUY Matteo Martineau 100¢ $158 5d
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov BUY Matteo Martineau 100¢ $692 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 100¢ $1,006 5d
Spread: Barcelona (-0.5) BUY Valencia 99¢ $9 9d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 9d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 9d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 9d
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $154 9d
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Darja Vidmanova 100¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3042 history records