Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c26…c2d0 sports 405 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$446 (-5%) realized −$444 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%209W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$167
14 days−$94
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$506
other 20% +$3
crypto 4% −$166
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -34.5% -40.7% 39% 39% -35.9%
≤30d 102 -20.6% -28.2% 45% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 402 -11.2% -19.6% 52% 46% -15.9%
all 402 -11.2% -19.6% 52% 46% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -15.9%
10% -27.3% 44% -24.0%
15% -34.3% 40% -31.3%
20% -40.8% 33% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses209 / 193
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)402 / 405
History coverage53d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 68¢ 68¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$21 +69%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 +$8 +66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$16 +46%
Set Handicap: Iatcenko (-1.5) vs Gormaz (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Gjorcheska (-1.5) vs Boluda (+1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $10 +$11 +112%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $20 +$18 +88%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Mochizuki (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Ficovich (+1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Evans (-1.5) vs Prado (+1.5) Jun 22 $9 +$7 +85%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$14 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$37 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$29 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Bondioli (+1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $19 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $42 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 19h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 45h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $35 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 4d
Set Handicap: Iatcenko (-1.5) vs Gormaz (+1.5) BUY Gormaz 57¢ $18 4d
Set Handicap: Iatcenko (-1.5) vs Gormaz (+1.5) BUY Gormaz 56¢ $3 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alina Korneeva 62¢ $2 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Dominika Salkova 58¢ $3 5d
Set Handicap: Gjorcheska (-1.5) vs Boluda (+1.5) BUY Boluda 66¢ $6 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 47¢ $6 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 47¢ $1 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 47¢ $1 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 46¢ $2 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $10 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 67¢ $2 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 67¢ $3 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 67¢ $7 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Crawford vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Jurij Rodionov 67¢ $2 5d
Set Handicap: Smith (-1.5) vs Ficovich (+1.5) BUY Ficovich 61¢ $2 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 32¢ $10 5d
Set Handicap: Mochizuki (-1.5) vs Sachko (+1.5) BUY Sachko 56¢ $20 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $21 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.15 · official $62.15 (match) · 976 history records