Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c27…21a9 sports 910 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$499 (-3%) realized −$535 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%509W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$341
other 1% −$119
crypto 1% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.2% -27.8% 18% 18% +16.8%
≤30d 211 -6.2% -15.2% 51% 51% -11.0%
≤90d 910 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 56% -12.5%
all 910 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 56% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 56% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 49% -20.8%
15% -28.9% 37% -28.5%
20% -35.9% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$535
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses509 / 401
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions1
Markets (closed)910 / 910
History coverage54d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 910 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Team Falcons 18¢ 30¢ $52 $88 +$36 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 366 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$142 +140%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$131 +129%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 +$161 +785%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $28 −$7 -26%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $23 −$23 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $9 +$4 +42%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $6 +$7 +119%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Jun 04 $7 +$8 +129%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $14 +$11 +79%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$40 -96%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 03 $28 +$8 +27%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $15 +$10 +65%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 03 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 03 $8 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $15 −$15 -99%
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 03 $28 −$28 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $6 +$4 +65%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $12 +$8 +67%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vortex CGO vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - Exort Series Main Jun 02 $24 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $7 +$6 +79%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $9 +$8 +90%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 02 $17 +$8 +46%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 02 $28 +$10 +37%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Clo Jun 02 $7 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $13 +$4 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $15 −$4 -24%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $16 +$4 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 01 $18 −$5 -25%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 01 $11 +$9 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $71 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $102 44h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Oxuji Esports 73¢ $23 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $28 16d
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $9 16d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 45¢ $6 16d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Close BUY HEROIC Academy 43¢ $7 16d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 55¢ $14 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.11 · official $88.11 (match) · 1700 history records