Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c27…cec5 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 31% −$15
sports 8% +$35
crypto 6% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage127d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $277 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 31 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 20 $535 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $225 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $955 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $491 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $415 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $464 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $455 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $427 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $449 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $460 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $289 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $210 18d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $277 28d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $277 31d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 41d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 43d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $227 43d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $227 43d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $239 43d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $239 44d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $238 44d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $238 44d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $249 44d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $249 45d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 45d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 45d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $230 45d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $230 46d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $214 46d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $214 46d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $253 47d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $253 48d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 48d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 48d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $276 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.99 · official $31.99 (match) · 380 history records