Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c2e…90fe world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 35% +$2
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.8% 45% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.8% 45% 0% -8.9%
all 28 -1.1% -10.6% 57% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 7% -8.6%
10% -19.1% 4% -17.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.01 per $1 lost it wins $16.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage454d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 51¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $32 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $14 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 20 $1 $0 +30%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 27h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $14 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $18 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $27 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $5 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $8 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $23 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.13 · official $32.13 (match) · 93 history records