Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c2e…d554 sports 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,116 (-4%) realized −$3,105 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%145W / 129L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$749est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$322
14 days+$187
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,177
other 2% +$197
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.4% -5.6% 64% 64% +13.3%
≤30d 63 +2.2% -7.5% 52% 49% -0.0%
≤90d 274 -12.1% -20.4% 53% 47% -13.8%
all 274 -12.1% -20.4% 53% 47% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 47% -13.8%
10% -28.1% 38% -22.1%
15% -35.0% 30% -29.6%
20% -41.4% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$149 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$3,105
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses145 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$749
Open positions3
Markets (closed)274 / 277
History coverage65d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 24 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$29 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 +$110 +120%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$49 +49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$33 +162%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 +$45 +118%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$29 +58%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $140 −$138 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$45 +89%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $41 −$40 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $51 +$261 +510%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $102 +$183 +180%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $20 +$12 +61%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $201 −$200 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $103 +$4 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $107 +$146 +136%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $154 +$39 +25%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $102 +$69 +68%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $301 +$38 +13%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $74 −$72 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5 +$15 +301%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on SELL 83¢ $137 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $129 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $201 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 60¢ $101 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $150 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $54 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $121 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.08 · official $189.08 (match) · 624 history records