Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c31…6bb9 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate81%52W / 12L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$138
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.5% -6.3% 84% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 64 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 42% -7.1%
≤90d 64 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 42% -7.1%
all 64 -2.4% -11.7% 81% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 42% -7.1%
10% -20.1% 30% -16.0%
15% -27.9% 16% -24.1%
20% -34.9% 11% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses52 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage12d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$34 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $44 +$32 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $37 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $72 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$15 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$47 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$22 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $102 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $84 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $39 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $34 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $36 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $44 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records