Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1C 0x1c36…7c78 other 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$41 (+13%) realized +$40 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day37.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-6.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+2.9%	-6.9%	69%	56%	+5.7%
≤30d	16	+2.9%	-6.9%	69%	56%	+5.7%
≤90d	16	+2.9%	-6.9%	69%	56%	+5.7%
all	16	+2.9%	-6.9%	69%	56%	+5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.9%	56%	+5.7%
10% ← realistic here	-15.8%	50%	-4.4%
15%	-24.0%	44%	-13.7%
20%	-31.4%	25%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +24% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$40

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)16 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day37.0

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	88¢	88¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$12	$12	+$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+9%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$1	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$9	+$7	+73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$12	+$5	+39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	+$7	+129%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$36	+$18	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 17	$5	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+110%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$30	+$14	+46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15	+$4	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$45	+$22	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$1	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$9	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$5	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	87¢	$16	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C	BUY Yes	100¢	$10	3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	100¢	$10	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	87¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$12	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	71¢	$0	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	81¢	$5	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$2	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$5	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$15	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$67	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.38 · official $68.38 (match) · 51 history records