Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c36…d891 world 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$18
sports 20% +$3
other 20% +$1
politics 14% +$1
economics 6% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 79 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 3% -9.7%
all 98 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 58
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage484d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $144 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $123 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $90 −$9 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $69 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $68 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $75 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $136 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $69 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $68 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $174 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $80 −$6 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $174 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $178 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $94 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $8 $0 +5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $70 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $18 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $18 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $70 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $70 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $68 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $76 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $68 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $53 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 9¢ $17 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $75 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $75 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.71 · official $69.87 · 418 history records