Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

1C 0x1c3e…86a3 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized −$1 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-26.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-19.2%	-26.9%	50%	50%	+2.6%
≤30d	4	-19.2%	-26.9%	50%	50%	+2.6%
≤90d	4	-19.2%	-26.9%	50%	50%	+2.6%
all	4	-19.2%	-26.9%	50%	50%	+2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.9%	50%	+2.6%
10%	-33.9%	50%	-7.2%
15%	-40.3%	50%	-16.2%
20%	-46.2%	50%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	100¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+12%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$18	+$10	+55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6	−$6	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$15	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	96¢	$28	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$18	18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.56 · official $36.56 (match) · 10 history records