Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1C 0x1c3e…d412 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,209 (+24%) realized +$1,223 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$1,102
14 days+$1,060
30 days+$1,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,128
other 4% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +17.4% +6.2% 70% 65% +14.3%
≤30d 39 +15.4% +4.4% 69% 64% +12.4%
≤90d 39 +15.4% +4.4% 69% 64% +12.4%
all 39 +15.4% +4.4% 69% 64% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 64% +12.4%
10% -5.6% 62% +1.6%
15% -14.7% 59% -8.2%
20% -23.1% 44% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$71 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized+$1,223
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage8d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ 60¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $204 −$48 -23%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $205 +$78 +38%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $102 +$67 +66%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $153 +$84 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$78 -76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $153 +$66 +43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $154 +$95 +62%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 +$56 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$5 +9%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $51 +$38 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $102 +$61 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 +$71 +70%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $102 +$47 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $102 +$65 +63%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $206 +$344 +167%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 +$70 +69%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$16 -16%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$3 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $102 +$65 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $102 −$8 -8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $102 +$76 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $153 +$67 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 +$18 +17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $103 +$66 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $205 +$158 +77%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$34 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $102 +$67 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $102 +$57 +56%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $102 +$58 +57%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $153 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $103 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 56¢ $102 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $204 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $157 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 81¢ $283 15h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 91¢ $170 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 93¢ $238 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $151 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $153 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $102 18h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $102 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $24 20h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $204 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $51 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $205 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 81¢ $148 38h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $219 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $248 40h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 77¢ $159 40h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $102 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $56 40h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $103 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 42h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $154 42h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 99¢ $89 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $52 44h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 55¢ $51 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.61 · official $535.62 (match) · 74 history records