Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c3f…05ae
crypto · 582 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$37 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$516
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses494 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)576 / 582
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 576 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$9
14 days−$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $256 $256 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+22%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $127 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 30% −$3
politics 24% −$6
world 18% +$10
crypto 14% −$13
culture 6% −$3
tech 6% $0
economics 2% −$20
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $256 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $89 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $100 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $89 18h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $100 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $127 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +2.5% -7.3% 91% 23% -9.0%
≤30d 575 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 575 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 23% -9.7%
all 576 -1.7% -11.0% 86% 23% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 23% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 12% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 6% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.14 · official $516.14 (match) · 1215 history records