Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1C 0x1c3f…e363 crypto 22 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day53.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-5.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	59%	41%	-10.5%
≤90d	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	59%	41%	-10.5%
all	22	+4.3%	-5.6%	59%	41%	-10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover53.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.6%	41%	-10.5%
10% ← realistic here	-14.7%	27%	-19.1%
15%	-22.9%	27%	-26.9%
20%	-30.5%	14%	-34.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day53.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 17	$14	−$13	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 17	$32	−$30	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 17	$49	−$48	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 17	$138	+$10	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	Jun 17	$30	−$3	-11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 17	$29	+$4	+14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$80	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 17	$26	−$26	-100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 17	$22	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$34	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$11	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$76	+$11	+14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$31	+$25	+82%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Jun 17	$25	−$2	-6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	Jun 17	$24	+$1	+3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals	Jun 17	$17	+$7	+43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$16	+$1	+6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	+$5	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 16	$11	$0	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$14	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$49	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$50	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	SELL Up	47¢	$27	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$84	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$30	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$37	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$29	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$26	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$29	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17?	BUY Up	49¢	$30	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$33	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$29	9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$80	9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$80	9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	SELL Colorado Rockies	90¢	$23	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$60	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$26	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$37	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Colorado Rockies	84¢	$22	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$26	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$25	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$31	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$30	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records