Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c42…6e3b crypto 1677 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,344 (+4%) realized +$5,360 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%1033W / 878L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$3,911
other 1% −$175
sports 1% −$96
world 0% +$213
finance 0% −$25
economics 0% −$40
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -75.5% -77.9% 15% 14% -78.0%
≤30d 612 -39.1% -44.9% 37% 35% -54.5%
≤90d 1076 -22.6% -29.9% 48% 45% -29.5%
all 1911 -12.2% -20.6% 54% 50% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 50% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 41% -21.4%
15% -35.1% 32% -29.0%
20% -41.5% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$48 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$5,360
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses1033 / 878
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1911 / 1677
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 21 $58 −$58 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-24? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Botswana win on 2025-12-27? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Nigeria vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 5AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 2AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Sudan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $138 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $80 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 2¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $90 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $81 6h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 2¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $49 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $77 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $104 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $91 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $91 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $82 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.40 (match) · 3500 history records