Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c43…65f7 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5
politics 23% $0
other 20% $0
culture 9% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.4%
all 44 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.0%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×18.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.65 per $1 lost it wins $19.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage303d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 +$5 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $34 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $34 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $44 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $45 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $45 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $39 16d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $5 294d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records