Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1c43…1608 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+7%) realized +$141 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 58L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$92
other 9% −$83
world 5% +$208
politics 1% −$29
finance 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$9
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 43% -28.3%
≤30d 8 -9.5% -18.2% 50% 50% -13.9%
≤90d 117 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -4.0%
all 117 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 50% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 50% -4.0%
10% -23.4% 49% -13.2%
15% -30.8% 44% -21.6%
20% -37.6% 38% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$17 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 58
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)117 / 122
History coverage277d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 80¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+34%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 62¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $55 +$37 +67%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $100 +$55 +55%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $137 −$136 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $82 +$55 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $10 −$2 -24%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 Apr 28 $40 −$24 -59%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Apr 25 $20 +$17 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 22 $20 +$19 +97%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Apr 22 $20 −$11 -56%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 19 $20 +$16 +79%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 19 $20 +$19 +93%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $10 +$18 +178%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $20 +$13 +67%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 18 $20 −$19 -95%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $7 +$10 +138%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Apr 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Veronika P Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-5.5) Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 16 $20 +$19 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $10 +$12 +124%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Apr 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $20 +$11 +57%
Penguins vs. Blues Apr 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Busan: Yi Zhou vs Pavel Kotov Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $20 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 27h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $20 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $55 4d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $100 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $137 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $82 14d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $29 41d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 41d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 42¢ $17 41d
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) BUY Lakers 60¢ $8 57d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Trail Blazers 31¢ $10 58d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Trail Blazers 41¢ $8 58d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Trail Blazers 52¢ $10 58d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 53¢ $40 59d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 39¢ $20 59d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 60d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 60d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 SELL Over 44¢ $16 60d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 60d
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 60d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 55¢ $10 61d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Magic 56¢ $20 62d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $10 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.92 · official $190.51 (match) · 268 history records