Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1C 0x1c4c…8d85 other 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,043 (+20%) realized +$24,070 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%255W / 103L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$755
7 days+$1,952
14 days+$2,914
30 days+$4,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5,582
world 34% +$5,163
politics 9% +$1,950
finance 3% −$325
crypto 2% +$234
economics 2% +$122
sports 1% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +19.9% +8.4% 80% 55% +2.1%
≤30d 66 +9.5% -0.9% 61% 45% +3.4%
≤90d 325 +31.7% +19.2% 70% 34% -0.9%
all 358 +35.0% +22.1% 71% 35% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.1% 35% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.4% 26% -9.9%
15% -0.2% 21% -18.6%
20% -10.0% 15% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$30 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$24,070
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses255 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)358 / 362
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$340
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $216 $234 +$18 (+8%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $138 $110 −$28 (-20%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 20¢ 10¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 4¢ 7¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $502 +$53 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4,282 +$565 +13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $303 +$4 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 19 $240 +$139 +58%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 19 $57 −$7 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $737 +$2 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $3,255 +$85 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $431 +$200 +46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2,999 +$460 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$20 -17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $48 +$6 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$39 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$3 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $115 +$156 +136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$12 +50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1,348 +$235 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $565 +$23 +4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $57 +$24 +42%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $45 −$21 -48%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 12 $113 −$3 -3%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $689 +$61 +9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $380 +$685 +180%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $596 −$43 -7%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 09 $50 +$10 +20%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $128 +$2 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $614 +$102 +17%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 08 $212 +$55 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,075 +$85 +4%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $28 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $180 −$16 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $340 +$50 +15%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $24 −$24 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,105 +$325 +29%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $411 −$90 -22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $30 −$21 -70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $500 +$210 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,332 +$234 +10%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 31 $345 +$238 +69%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$70 +233%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $445 +$328 +74%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $728 +$100 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $28 −$4 -16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $1,660 +$373 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $52 −$4 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $197 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $65 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 9¢ $5 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $2 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $3 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $48 2h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $11 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $225 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 11¢ $63 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $122 5h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $60 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $112 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $245 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 9¢ $50 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 50¢ $5 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 51¢ $255 6h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 9¢ $15 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $32 9h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 83¢ $251 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $30 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $649 21h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 13¢ $20 21h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 13¢ $32 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $45 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $47 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $887 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.40 · official $402.40 (match) · 3500 history records