Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1c4c…9f95 crypto 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,920 (-4%) realized −$3,602 · open −$318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%340W / 257L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$1,270est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$4,372
crypto 17% −$625
other 2% −$1,675
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -12.1% -20.5% 46% 44% -15.0%
≤30d 252 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 48% -16.8%
≤90d 597 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 50% -14.8%
all 597 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 40% -23.0%
15% -29.3% 32% -30.4%
20% -36.3% 23% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$136 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$3,602
Unrealized−$318
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses340 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,270
Open positions4
Markets (closed)597 / 601
History coverage50d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 84¢ $50 $107 +$57 (+114%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 36¢ 5¢ $324 $45 −$279 (-86%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx PortlandFire 5¢ 0¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-93%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$109 +212%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$456 +223%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $306 +$683 +223%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $511 −$55 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $219 +$276 +126%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $165 −$153 -92%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$414 +203%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $412 +$322 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $472 −$461 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,011 −$999 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $250 −$32 -13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $504 −$447 -89%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $221 +$91 +41%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $700 −$700 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$199 +66%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9 −$5 -56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $350 +$145 +41%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $780 +$210 +27%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $103 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $251 +$58 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $292 −$288 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $393 +$144 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $111 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $491 +$126 +26%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $467 +$523 +112%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $116 +$129 +111%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $304 +$245 +80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $202 +$110 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $202 +$115 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $22 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $22 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $3 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $59 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $1 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $94 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $29 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $94 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $2 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 36¢ $1 1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 5¢ $51 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 1¢ $5 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $60 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $160 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $102 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 9h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $305 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $304 11h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $660 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $204 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 30¢ $204 13h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Saigon Warriors 19¢ $5 13h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 12¢ $3 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 7¢ $15 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $989 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.76 · official $128.05 · 1662 history records