Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c4e…148c crypto 43 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-10%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$30
sports 10% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.0% -16.8% 65% 40% -19.9%
≤30d 43 -8.0% -16.8% 65% 40% -19.9%
≤90d 43 -8.0% -16.8% 65% 40% -19.9%
all 43 -8.0% -16.8% 65% 40% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 40% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 23% -27.6%
15% -32.0% 16% -34.6%
20% -38.7% 16% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records