Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c50…9743 sports 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+14%) realized +$104 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%33W / 36L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$120
other 17% −$12
crypto 2% −$3
world 2% −$3
politics 2% −$9
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -18.5% -26.3% 34% 34% +1.5%
≤30d 53 -18.5% -26.3% 34% 34% +1.5%
≤90d 57 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 33% +4.5%
all 69 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 41% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 41% +7.4%
10% -13.4% 38% -2.8%
15% -21.8% 36% -12.2%
20% -29.4% 30% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses33 / 36
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 78
History coverage145d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Over 60¢ 56¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Over 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Over 54¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$44 +172%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$28 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $6 +$44 +718%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $39 +$49 +126%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$22 +145%
Critical Discord Incident by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
CSUN Matadors vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (W) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Trump say "China" or "Russia" 15+ times during Iowa speech? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 0m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 2m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 9m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 10m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 10m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $4 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $44 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $20 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $43 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $6 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bo BUY 34¢ $20 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $20 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.15 · official $71.15 (match) · 154 history records