Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c51…2383 world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
politics 23% −$6
other 21% −$8
sports 17% −$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 65 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 2% -9.7%
all 81 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 1% -10.1%
10% -24.7% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage528d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $22 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 +$2 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $29 −$4 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $32 −$3 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $4 $0 -12%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $35 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $141 −$2 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $63 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $28 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $7 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records