Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c55…84ce sports 1151 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,991 (+13%) realized +$4,996 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%484W / 880L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 114d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,915
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 266 -83.3% -84.9% 7% 6% -96.1%
≤30d 266 -83.3% -84.9% 7% 6% -96.1%
≤90d 451 -48.0% -52.9% 21% 19% -61.4%
all 1364 -6.3% -15.3% 35% 31% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 31% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 28% -23.2%
15% -30.8% 25% -30.6%
20% -37.6% 24% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$4,996
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses484 / 880
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1364 / 1151
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: ZennIT vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Tier 1 Group The Bandits 71¢ 50¢ $36 $25 −$10 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group A RED Canids Academy 71¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Prestige 69¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 72¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 60¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs JiJieHao 58¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 36¢ 37¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Weibo Gaming vs Soul's Heart Esport (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage Souls Heart Esport 23¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 AG Super Play 42¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B xept 24¢ 23¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage Shaiikademy 31¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+60%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 10¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 WST 26¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) FK Bodø/Glimt 12¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+317%)
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Insomnia 32¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Gr Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will ASM Clermont Auvergne win? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Team Rostikfacekid vs Team Stariy_Bog (BO3) - Winline Star Ser Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO1) Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BK ROG Esports (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Yang Yang Gaming vs FENNEL (BO1) - LJL Stage 1 Group A Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Cães de Água vs Vantex Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Group C Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: CTRL Esports vs UNIWAY (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Ursa (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qual Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FengDa Gaming vs Eruption (BO3) - Zhi-Tech Elite Maste Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs megoshort (BO1) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs VR2 (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: OXEN vs Farenvehn (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stag Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Cl Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Gro Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Valorant: Barça eSports GC vs Joblife GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EME Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs HMBLE (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - FiReCONTER Gro Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Recrent vs Team 9pasha (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Ser Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Play Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Team 9pasha vs Team VooDooSh (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs MASONIC (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs ODDIK (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: Gamax Esports vs Team RA'AD (BO3) - VCL MENA: Resilience Kic Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs JUMBO TEAM (BO3) - Exort Cataclysm Group D Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs Bulldog Esports (BO1) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs STATE (BO1) - United21 x Esplay Challenge Gro Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs Sidequest (BO1) - United21 x Esplay Challenge Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs MINLATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Group S Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: mouse vs F5 Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Open Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: VillianArc vs Fraggerz (BO3) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 24¢ $2 18m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $6 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 57¢ $6 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY JiJieHao 58¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY JiJieHao 58¢ $3 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $3 6h
Rainbow Six Siege: Weibo Gaming vs Soul's Heart Esport (BO1) - Asia Pa BUY Souls Heart Esport 23¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY RED Canids Academy 71¢ $7 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 7¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 5¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 43¢ $4 11h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 27¢ $0 11h
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY AG Super Play 42¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 54¢ $1 13h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 26¢ $0 16h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 14¢ $2 16h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pacific L BUY Shaiikademy 31¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 57¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 30¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $1 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 36¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $5 25h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $7 29h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY Lindorfitos 6¢ $1 30h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 40¢ $4 31h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $6 32h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Fortress 49¢ $0 33h
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Insomnia 32¢ $0 33h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 59¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.05 · official $100.05 (match) · 3500 history records