Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c57…8fb3 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$938 (-35%) realized −$931 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$440
sports 50% −$519
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -51.3% -55.9% 24% 24% -50.1%
≤30d 17 -51.3% -55.9% 24% 24% -50.1%
≤90d 17 -51.3% -55.9% 24% 24% -50.1%
all 17 -51.3% -55.9% 24% 24% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 24% -50.1%
10% -60.1% 24% -54.9%
15% -64.0% 24% -59.2%
20% -67.5% 18% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$108 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$931
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$70 -68%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$39 -39%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $198 +$157 +79%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $320 −$262 -82%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $185 −$121 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $354 −$180 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$278 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $102 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $32 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $62 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $198 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $58 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $220 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $58 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $170 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $60 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.00 · official $393.00 (match) · 43 history records