Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c57…8909 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$27
politics 22% −$6
sports 13% −$27
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 7% -9.7%
all 92 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -37.1% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage87d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $323 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $296 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $281 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $286 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $602 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $281 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $301 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 10 $310 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $317 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $267 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 14h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 17h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 19h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $129 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 13d
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $48 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $89 24d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 28d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 30d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.25 · official $243.25 (match) · 248 history records