Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c59…d9f0 sports 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%33W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 28% −$15
other 28% −$18
economics 4% −$5
crypto 3% −$5
world 2% $0
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 73 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 76 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 342 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses33 / 309
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage651d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $111 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $166 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $49 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $351 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $347 −$3 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $59 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $157 −$2 -1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $96 −$4 -4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $117 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $29 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $149 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 04 $42 +$4 +10%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $141 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $135 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $59 50m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $7 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $7 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 13h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $46 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $47 21h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $39 21h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $39 27h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 28h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 35h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 35h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 42h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 43h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $49 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $49 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $62 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $62 4d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $51 4d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $51 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 89¢ $64 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.99 · official $58.99 (match) · 1382 history records