Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c59…8762 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$152 (+71%) realized +$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +168% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip
Net edge+124%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$36
other 30% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+142.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +167.9% +142.4% 77% 77% +88.8%
≤30d 13 +167.9% +142.4% 77% 77% +88.8%
≤90d 13 +167.9% +142.4% 77% 77% +88.8%
all 13 +167.9% +142.4% 77% 77% +88.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +142.4% 77% +88.8%
10% +119.2% 77% +70.7%
15% +98.0% 77% +54.2%
20% +78.6% 69% +39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +168% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +235% → late +111% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.56 per $1 lost it wins $7.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 29 $6 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $15 +$35 +227%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $36 +$17 +48%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $39 +$36 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $58 −$21 -37%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $8 +$5 +64%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Jonathan David: 3+ shots Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $4 +$5 +134%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals Jun 28 $11 +$125 +1195%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $2 +$4 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $36 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $37 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $39 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $58 5h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 32h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 32h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $6 32h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $4 32h
Jonathan David: 3+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $8 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 32h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $4 40h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 41h
Yoane Wissa: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $11 44h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.02 · official $12.02 (match) · 27 history records