Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c5b…0b53 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$214 (+0%) realized +$212 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$6
politics 38% −$47
sports 12% +$260
world 3% −$9
crypto 2% +$6
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 +0.1% -9.5% 9% 2% -9.3%
all 125 +0.3% -9.3% 26% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 11% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 10% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 10% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,008) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$14 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage148d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $881 $883 +$2 (+0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,218 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,036 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,520 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,941 −$5 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $557 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $717 +$2 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,028 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $987 +$1,069 +108%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,834 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $503 +$3 +1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,331 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $889 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,012 −$2 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $778 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $865 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $286 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $287 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $514 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $514 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $313 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $881 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,216 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,295 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,297 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,545 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,548 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,667 20d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,638 21d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,640 21d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,348 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 23d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,622 23d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,625 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,554 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,556 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,436 24d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,439 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,096.53 · official $1,096.53 (match) · 398 history records