Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c5b…350a sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$3
crypto 23% −$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -47.0% -52.1% 33% 33% -30.3%
≤30d 12 -47.0% -52.1% 33% 33% -30.3%
≤90d 12 -47.0% -52.1% 33% 33% -30.3%
all 12 -47.0% -52.1% 33% 33% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 33% -30.3%
10% -56.7% 33% -37.0%
15% -60.9% 17% -43.1%
20% -64.7% 8% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$67 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage5d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $81 +$53 +65%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $111 −$39 -35%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $251 +$117 +47%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $221 +$66 +30%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $59 +$16 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $99 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up $53 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 77¢ $81 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes $37 3h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 75¢ $101 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays $17 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ $55 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $152 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $16 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $1 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $22 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $1 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $0 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $1 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $1 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 23¢ $47 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $0 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $11 7h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 22¢ $11 7h
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) SELL Los Angeles Sparks 75¢ $0 5d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) SELL Los Angeles Sparks 75¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records