Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1C 0x1c5b…685d other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+53%) realized +$52 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +246% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +166% what you keep after slip
Net edge+166%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$17
sports 16% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+212.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +245.8% +212.9% 43% 43% +188.3%
≤30d 7 +245.8% +212.9% 43% 43% +188.3%
≤90d 7 +245.8% +212.9% 43% 43% +188.3%
all 7 +245.8% +212.9% 43% 43% +188.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +212.9% 43% +188.3%
10% ← realistic here +183.0% 43% +160.8%
15% +155.6% 43% +135.6%
20% +130.6% 43% +112.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +219% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +246% · $-wt +219% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×5.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)7 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-10%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+138%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +339%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +339%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$44 +1442%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 11h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.32 · official $57.39 (match) · 34 history records