Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c5b…6f2b crypto 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-10%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day108.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$220
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -64.6% -68.0% 24% 19% -85.8%
≤30d 72 -15.6% -23.7% 33% 31% -23.4%
≤90d 72 -15.6% -23.7% 33% 31% -23.4%
all 72 -15.6% -23.7% 33% 31% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover108.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 31% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 28% -30.8%
15% -37.6% 24% -37.4%
20% -43.7% 17% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day108.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$23 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$32 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$72 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $92 −$85 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$492 +1449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$42 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $28 +$16 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$42 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$54 +184%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records