Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1c5d…fad8
other · 230 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$81 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage122d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 229 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $265 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $256 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $268 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $902 −$2 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $291 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $769 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $57 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$37
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$5
culture 8% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$7
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 5h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 6h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 12h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 15h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $15 22h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $15 24h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 29h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 30h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 44h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $50 46h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.3% -9.8% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.45 · official $48.45 (match) · 1269 history records