Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c5e…b954 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 22% +$13
politics 16% +$1
sports 10% −$15
economics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% −$14
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 +4.6% -5.4% 30% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 68 +0.3% -9.2% 34% 3% -9.6%
all 80 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 9% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 8% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage525d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $34 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $75 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $63 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $16 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $74 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $37 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $2 $0 +16%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $33 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $30 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $31 29h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $30 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $22 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $34 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.72 · official $1.00 (match) · 317 history records