Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1C 0x1c5e…ea91 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$5
world 21% −$2
politics 20% −$1
crypto 18% −$7
culture 9% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$943) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage91d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 28 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,275 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $958 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 14 $937 $0 +0%
Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? May 14 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? May 13 $43 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $932 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 13 $953 −$4 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Mar 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Mar 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $78 41m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,305 48m
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $26 54m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 100¢ $1,267 1h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $259 1h
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,275 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 98¢ $18 39d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 39d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 39d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 39d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 39d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 39d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 39d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 39d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 43d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 43d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 43d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 43d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 44d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $962 44d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $18 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records