Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c5f…dfc9 crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,517 (-27%) realized −$1,517 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate78%158W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$136
14 days−$228
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$5
politics 27% −$1,460
crypto 22% −$27
other 2% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.3% -34.3% 53% 27% -42.3%
≤30d 28 -8.1% -16.8% 61% 43% -26.5%
≤90d 110 -2.8% -12.0% 74% 45% -11.1%
all 203 -2.7% -12.0% 78% 42% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 42% -35.0%
10% -20.4% 23% -41.2%
15% -28.1% 11% -46.9%
20% -35.2% 6% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$48 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses158 / 45
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage588d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $99 −$62 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 +$53 +88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$75 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $71 −$70 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $46 +$32 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $35 +$18 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$2 +43%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 +$13 +62%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 +$25 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $40 −$29 -72%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $15 +$6 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $15 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $35 +$5 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $25 +$4 +14%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $5 $0 +7%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $50 +$16 +31%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $50 +$20 +40%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $60 +$12 +20%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $67 +$15 +22%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $30 +$8 +27%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $15 −$15 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $40 +$16 +40%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 03 $30 +$1 +3%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $40 +$7 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $33 −$5 -15%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $10 +$1 +11%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 02 $45 −$5 -10%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $95 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $5 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 26h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 537 history records