Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c60…fcf2 crypto 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,454 (-2%) realized −$2,498 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate83%307W / 64L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$387
other 46% −$2,084
sports 0% +$39
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.6% -19.1% 75% 25% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 90% 24% -8.5%
≤90d 105 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 39% -10.1%
all 371 -3.4% -12.6% 83% 19% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 19% -11.8%
10% -21.0% 10% -20.2%
15% -28.6% 6% -27.9%
20% -35.6% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$87 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$2,498
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses307 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)371 / 387
History coverage184d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polmans Marc Polmans 68¢ 100¢ $85 $124 +$39 (+46%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 65¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+169%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 29¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+84%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 22¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+144%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 56¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 65¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $70 +$1 +1%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $1 $0 +38%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Appalling" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will Starmer say "Political Stunt" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 04 $1 $0 +21%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Jun 04 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? May 20 $1 $0 +30%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 May 20 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minist May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Labour" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Qu May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 05 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 03 $62 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Q May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Doly Begum win the by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southw May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions May 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat May 03 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 68¢ $66 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Marc Polmans 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 96¢ $3 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 96¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 94¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 97¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 17d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter BUY Alexander Donski 72¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 58¢ $1 21d
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 62¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang BUY Sorana Cirstea 81¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 75¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 41d
Will Starmer say "U-turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY No 87¢ $1 41d
Will Starmer say "Appalling" during the next Prime Minister's Question BUY No 95¢ $1 41d
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY No 85¢ $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.15 · official $176.16 (match) · 1244 history records