Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1c61…551c crypto 1503 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (184 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$148 (+6%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +301% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +208% what you keep after slip
Net edge+208%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%370W / 889L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day183.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$166
14 days+$332
30 days+$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (184 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+262.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 +416.4% +367.2% 33% 31% -3.1%
≤30d 1259 +300.7% +262.6% 29% 28% -9.4%
≤90d 1259 +300.7% +262.6% 29% 28% -9.4%
all 1259 +300.7% +262.6% 29% 28% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover183.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +262.6% 28% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +227.9% 27% -18.1%
15% +196.2% 26% -26.0%
20% +167.2% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +301% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +260% → late +342% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses370 / 889
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1259 / 1503
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day183.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 16¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5481%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +4560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$6 +8241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +3700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$5 +6918%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5720%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5758%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5788%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$4 +5642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +3764%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +4651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +4651%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +4359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +4106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -741%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +766%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +3695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +3513%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +2706%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1470%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +706%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -2033%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1668%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$2 -127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -585%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +2141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -794%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -806%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -1015%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.05 · official $3.15 · 3500 history records