Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

1C 0x1c64…68b8 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$51 (-9%) realized −$53 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$137per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-0.7%	-10.2%	67%	67%	-21.9%
≤30d	3	-0.7%	-10.2%	67%	67%	-21.9%
≤90d	3	-0.7%	-10.2%	67%	67%	-21.9%
all	3	-0.7%	-10.2%	67%	67%	-21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.2%	67%	-21.9%
10%	-18.8%	67%	-29.3%
15%	-26.6%	67%	-36.2%
20%	-33.8%	33%	-42.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$159 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$166

Realized−$53

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$137

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	50¢	50¢	$165	$166	+$2 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$110	+$58	+52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$160	−$159	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$110	+$50	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$167	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$160	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$160	10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$110	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$110	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.45 · official $166.45 (match) · 6 history records