Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c64…38ec crypto 70 markets active 1d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate86%60W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$3
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 30% -11.1%
≤30d 70 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 30% -11.1%
≤90d 70 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 30% -11.1%
all 70 -1.4% -10.8% 86% 30% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 30% -11.1%
10% -19.3% 9% -19.6%
15% -27.1% 7% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses60 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records