Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1C 0x1c68…d4ff sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$41
other 48% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
≤30d 6 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
≤90d 6 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
all 6 -5.2% -14.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 50% +0.9%
10% -22.5% 50% -8.8%
15% -30.0% 50% -17.6%
20% -36.8% 50% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$49 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? No 49¢ 100¢ $78 $161 +$83 (+106%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 10¢ $70 $17 −$53 (-76%)
AC Goianiense leading at halftime? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $81 +$64 +79%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 +$72 +84%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $49 +$52 +105%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $91 −$89 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $71 1h
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 34¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 57¢ $30 1h
AC Goianiense leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 57¢ $29 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $81 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 17¢ $15 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 6h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $101 6h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 48¢ $49 8h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $42 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $91 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.13 · official $217.83 · 19 history records