Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c68…4cd4 crypto 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$60 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate80%256W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$36
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$30
politics 15% −$1
sports 10% −$25
other 9% +$1
world 3% −$9
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 38% -15.5%
≤30d 49 -14.2% -22.3% 71% 16% -17.4%
≤90d 202 -4.0% -13.1% 90% 4% -11.8%
all 321 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -10.8%
10% -20.4% 2% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 1% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses256 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage174d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $9 −$4 -47%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 +$4 +59%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 +$5 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 +$10 +172%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $16 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6PM ET May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 16¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $9 3h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 94¢ $5 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $7 38h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $5 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $4 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $5 4d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 87¢ $10 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 61¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 70¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $7 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $5 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $5 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $9 9d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $9 9d
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 64¢ $5 10d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $7 10d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $5 13d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 95¢ $5 13d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 95¢ $5 13d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 94¢ $5 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 36¢ $6 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.53 · official $11.53 (match) · 1306 history records