Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c6d…8cc4 crypto 1913 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,754 (-12%) realized −$2,658 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%499W / 1513L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,651
7 days−$1,329
14 days−$1,045
30 days−$991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$184
weather 29% +$595
crypto 18% −$379
other 10% +$18
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 -59.9% -63.7% 12% 12% -55.4%
≤30d 489 -32.4% -38.9% 22% 21% -26.3%
≤90d 1777 -10.8% -19.3% 23% 22% -16.9%
all 2012 -12.7% -21.0% 25% 24% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 24% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 22% -25.0%
15% -35.5% 20% -32.2%
20% -41.8% 18% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2,658
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses499 / 1513
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2012 / 1913
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2012 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $38 $21 −$16 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Yes 41¢ 11¢ $29 $8 −$21 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $21 $1 −$20 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$8 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 5AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 4AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 23? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 4AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 2PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$65 +432%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 98¢ $62 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 94¢ $69 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 95¢ $54 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 32h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 37h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 43h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 93¢ $39 43h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? SELL Yes 89¢ $49 43h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 44h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $14 45h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $64 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 3500 history records