Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c70…1203 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$111 (+4%) realized +$110 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$92
14 days+$169
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$398
world 19% −$60
finance 9% −$45
politics 8% −$59
sports 6% −$50
crypto 4% −$71
tech 2% −$7
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.8% +2.9% 88% 75% +11.4%
≤30d 13 +8.3% -2.0% 69% 62% +4.2%
≤90d 47 +5.4% -4.6% 45% 30% -5.3%
all 47 +5.4% -4.6% 45% 30% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 30% -5.3%
10% -13.7% 19% -14.4%
15% -22.1% 15% -22.7%
20% -29.7% 11% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage74d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $131 +$33 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +6%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 +$32 +76%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $56 +$25 +45%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$70 +156%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$20 -89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $62 +$27 +43%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $161 −$19 -12%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? May 18 $237 −$29 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $50 +$5 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $50 +$35 +70%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $48 −$14 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in Apr 21 $50 −$7 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $99 −$26 -26%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$4 -22%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 16 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 16 $149 −$40 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $50 −$26 -52%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? Apr 13 $47 −$18 -38%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? Apr 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $30 +$17 +58%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 −$2 -8%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $50 −$3 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 10 $80 −$8 -10%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 10 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 08 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $32 +$240 +754%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $86 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $131 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $22 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $20 4d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $73 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $81 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 5d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 6d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $20 8d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $35 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $45 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 11d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 14d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $62 14d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $122 15d
Trump kiss by May 31? BUY No $40 28d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $141 32d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $20 32d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $67 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.02 · official $262.76 · 197 history records