Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

1C 0x1c70…caf0 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$785 (-19%) realized −$800 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$459per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+3.1%	-6.7%	88%	25%	-25.4%
≤30d	8	+3.1%	-6.7%	88%	25%	-25.4%
≤90d	8	+3.1%	-6.7%	88%	25%	-25.4%
all	8	+3.1%	-6.7%	88%	25%	-25.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.7%	25%	-25.4%
10%	-15.6%	12%	-32.5%
15%	-23.8%	12%	-39.0%
20%	-31.3%	12%	-45.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

71% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$1,000 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$344

Realized−$800

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage5d

Avg bet$459

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	No	65¢	68¢	$329	$344	+$15 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$179	+$154	+86%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$168	+$10	+6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$154	+$15	+10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	Jun 20	$149	+$4	+3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5	Jun 19	$141	+$8	+6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$1,002	−$1,000	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$1,001	+$36	+4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$1,000	+$108	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	65¢	$332	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$179	14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	94¢	$168	27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	91¢	$154	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	97¢	$149	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	94¢	$141	3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	93¢	$1,002	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	96¢	$1,001	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	BUY Under	90¢	$1,000	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.19 · official $344.20 (match) · 16 history records